In this paper analytical expression for determining the optimal parameter value of the Same Slope Seasonality model was developed. Then performance of the Same Slope Seasonality model was compared to the performance of Holt-Winters exponential model, performing tests on M2-Competition time series. To determine the parameters of Holt-Winters exponential model, nonlinear mathematical programming was used. Performed tests proved that Same Slope Seasonality model is more successful than Holt-Winters exponential model. Tests revealed that Same Slope Seasonality model gives unreliable forecasts when time series has specific charac teristics, giving us valuable information for model improvement.

Research is the viscoelasticity properties composite of wood made by gluing beech peeled veneer and at constant load, and two constant humidity. Based on the experimental results obtained by the method of the least squares rheological parameters have been determined as well as their differences in relation depending on the moisture content of samples. Has been developed and applied numerical model based on the finite volume method analysis of viscoelasticity properties composite of wood. Starting with the continuum concept we presented and broadened the application of the finite volume method for solving of the hygro-viscoelasticity behaviour of the composite of wood. Have been ignored of anisotropy in wood, and observation of the sample as homogenous, non-layered material, and also neglect of glue. We developed the constitutive relation including the impact of moisture, expressed through relaxation functions and given in integral form. The calculation results are compared with results of the experiment

Approximately 15 % of colorectal carcinomas (CRC) display high level microsatellite instability (MSI-H) due to either a germline mutation in one of the genes responsible for DNA mismatch repair (Lynch syndrome, 3 %) or somatic inactivation of the same pathway, most commonly through hypermethylation of the MLH1 gene (sporadic MSI-H, 12 %). Although heterogeneous, MSI-H colorectal carcinomas as a group show some distinct biologic characteristics when compared to CRC with stable or low level microsatellite instability. In the present review we will highlight therapeutically relevant characteristics of MSI-H tumors which could lead to specific responses to some conventional chemotherapy or novel targeted therapy agents.

Approximately 15 % of colorectal carcinomas (CRC) display high level microsatellite instability (MSI-H) due to either a germline mutation in one of the genes responsible for DNA mismatch repair (Lynch syndrome, 3 %) or somatic inactivation of the same pathway, most commonly through hypermethylation of the MLH1 gene (sporadic MSI-H, 12 %). Although heterogeneous, MSI-H colorectal carcinomas as a group show some distinct biologic characteristics when compared to CRC with stable or low level microsatellite instability. In the present review we will highlight therapeutically relevant characteristics of MSI-H tumors which could lead to specific responses to some conventional chemotherapy or novel targeted therapy agents.

BACKGROUND Most data for treatment of dermatomyositis and juvenile dermatomyositis are from anecdotal, non-randomised case series. We aimed to compare, in a randomised trial, the efficacy and safety of prednisone alone with that of prednisone plus either methotrexate or ciclosporin in children with new-onset juvenile dermatomyositis. METHODS We did a randomised trial at 54 centres in 22 countries. We enrolled patients aged 18 years or younger with new-onset juvenile dermatomyositis who had received no previous treatment and did not have cutaneous or gastrointestinal ulceration. We randomly allocated 139 patients via a computer-based system to prednisone alone or in combination with either ciclosporin or methotrexate. We did not mask patients or investigators to treatment assignments. Our primary outcomes were the proportion of patients achieving a juvenile dermatomyositis PRINTO 20 level of improvement (20% improvement in three of six core set variables at 6 months), time to clinical remission, and time to treatment failure. We compared the three treatment groups with the Kruskal-Wallis test and Friedman's test, and we analysed survival with Kaplan-Meier curves and the log-rank test. Analysis was by intention to treat. Here, we present results after at least 2 years of treatment (induction and maintenance phases). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00323960. FINDINGS Between May 31, 2006, and Nov 12, 2010, 47 patients were randomly assigned prednisone alone, 46 were allocated prednisone plus ciclosporin, and 46 were randomised prednisone plus methotrexate. Median duration of follow-up was 35.5 months. At month 6, 24 (51%) of 47 patients assigned prednisone, 32 (70%) of 46 allocated prednisone plus ciclosporin, and 33 (72%) of 46 administered prednisone plus methotrexate achieved a juvenile dermatomyositis PRINTO 20 improvement (p=0.0228). Median time to clinical remission was 41.9 months in patients assigned prednisone plus methotrexate but was not observable in the other two treatment groups (2.45 fold [95% CI 1.2-5.0] increase with prednisone plus methotrexate; p=0.012). Median time to treatment failure was 16.7 months in patients allocated prednisone, 53.3 months in those assigned prednisone plus ciclosporin, but was not observable in patients randomised to prednisone plus methotrexate (1.95 fold [95% CI 1.20-3.15] increase with prednisone; p=0.009). Median time to prednisone discontinuation was 35.8 months with prednisone alone compared with 29.4-29.7 months in the combination groups (p=0.002). A significantly greater proportion of patients assigned prednisone plus ciclosporin had adverse events, affecting the skin and subcutaneous tissues, gastrointestinal system, and general disorders. Infections and infestations were significantly increased in patients assigned prednisone plus ciclosporin and prednisone plus methotrexate. No patients died during the study. INTERPRETATION Combined treatment with prednisone and either ciclosporin or methotrexate was more effective than prednisone alone. The safety profile and steroid-sparing effect favoured the combination of prednisone plus methotrexate. FUNDING Italian Agency of Drug Evaluation, Istituto Giannina Gaslini (Genoa, Italy), Myositis Association (USA).

Data on the management of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the Balkan Region are limited. The Serbian AF Association (SAFA) prospectively investigated contemporary ‘real-world’ AF management in clinical practice in Albania, Bosnia&Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia through a 14-week (December 2014-February 2015) prospective, multicentre survey of consecutive AF patients. We report the results pertinent to stroke prevention strategies. Of 2712 enrolled patients, 2663 (98.2%) with complete data were included in this analysis (mean age 69.1 ± 10.9 years, female 44.6%). Overall, 1960 patients (73.6%) received oral anticoagulants (OAC) and 762 (28.6%) received antiplatelet drugs. Of patients given OAC, 17.2% received non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs). CHA2DS2-VASc score was not significantly associated with OAC use. Of the ‘truly low-risk’ patients (CHA2DS2-VASc = 0 [males], or 1 [females]) 56.5% received OAC. Time in Therapeutic Range (TTR) was available in only 18.7% of patients (mean TTR: 49.5% ± 22.3%). Age ≥ 80 years, prior myocardial infarction and paroxysmal AF were independent predictors of OAC non-use. Our survey shows a relatively high overall use of OAC in AF patients, but with low quality of vitamin K antagonist therapy and insufficient adherence to AF guidelines. Additional efforts are needed to improve AF-related thromboprophylaxis in clinical practice in the Balkan Region.

Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a clinically and genetically heterogeneous connective tissue disorder characterized by bone fragility that arises from decreased bone mass and abnormalities in bone material quality. OI type I represents the milder form of the disease and according to the original Sillence classification is characterized by minimal skeletal deformities and near‐normal stature. Raman microspectroscopy is a vibrational spectroscopic technique that allows the determination of bone material properties in bone biopsy blocks with a spatial resolution of ∼1 µm, as a function of tissue age. In the present study, we used Raman microspectroscopy to evaluate bone material quality in transiliac bone biopsies from children with a mild form of OI, either attributable to collagen haploinsufficiency OI type I (OI‐Quant; n = 11) or aberrant collagen structure (OI‐Qual; n = 5), as a function of tissue age, and compared it against the previously published values established in a cohort of biopsies from healthy children (n = 54, ages 1 to 23 years). The results indicated significant differences in bone material compositional characteristics between OI‐Quant patients and healthy controls, whereas fewer were evident in the OI‐Qual patients. Differences in both subgroups of OI compared with healthy children were evident for nanoporosity, mineral maturity/crystallinity as determined by maxima of the v1PO4 Raman band, and pyridinoline (albeit in different direction) content. These alterations in bone material compositional properties most likely contribute to the bone fragility characterizing this disease. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

To develop criteria for the classification of macrophage activation syndrome (MAS) in patients with systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). A multistep process, based on a combination of expert consensus and analysis of real patient data, was conducted. A panel of 28 experts was first asked to classify 428 patient profiles as having or not having MAS, based on clinical and laboratory features at the time of disease onset. The 428 profiles comprised 161 patients with systemic JIA—associated MAS and 267 patients with a condition that could potentially be confused with MAS (active systemic JIA without evidence of MAS, or systemic infection). Next, the ability of candidate criteria to classify individual patients as having MAS or not having MAS was assessed by evaluating the agreement between the classification yielded using the criteria and the consensus classification of the experts. The final criteria were selected in a consensus conference. Experts achieved consensus on the classification of 391 of the 428 patient profiles (91.4%). A total of 982 candidate criteria were tested statistically. The 37 best-performing criteria and 8 criteria obtained from the literature were evaluated at the consensus conference. During the conference, 82% consensus among experts was reached on the final MAS classification criteria. In validation analyses, these criteria had a sensitivity of 0.73 and a specificity of 0.99. Agreement between the classification (MAS or not MAS) obtained using the criteria and the original diagnosis made by the treating physician was high (κ=0.76). We have developed a set of classification criteria for MAS complicating systemic JIA and provided preliminary evidence of its validity. Use of these criteria will potentially improve understanding of MAS in systemic JIA and enhance efforts to discover effective therapies, by ensuring appropriate patient enrollment in studies.