Gender inequalities are reflected in differential vulnerability, and exposure to the hazards posed by climate change and addressing them is key to increase the adaptive capacities of societies. We provide trajectories of the Gender Inequality Index (GII) alongside the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a scenario framework widely used in climate science. Here we find that rapid improvements in gender inequality are possible under a sustainable development scenario already in the near-term. The share of girls growing up in countries with the highest gender inequality could be reduced to about 24% in 2030 compared to about 70% today. Largely overcoming gender inequality as assessed in the GII would be within reach by mid-century. Under less optimistic scenarios, gender inequality may persist throughout the 21st century. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating gender in scenarios assessing future climate impacts and underscore the relevance of addressing gender inequalities in policies aiming to foster climate resilient development. Gender inequality increases vulnerability to climate change impacts and reduces societies’ adaptive capacity. Here the authors show how gender inequality may evolve in the future in five scenarios of socioeconomic development and highlight the importance of incorporating gender inequality in climate change research and policy.

A modest fraction of current global stimulus funds can put the world on track to achieve Paris Agreement goals Governments around the globe are responding to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)–related economic crisis with unprecedented economic recovery packages (1), which at the time of writing surpassed USD 12 trillion. Several influential voices, including the United Nations (UN) secretary-general, heads of state, companies, investors, and central banks, have called for post–COVID-19 economic recovery efforts to be used to catalyze the necessary longer-term transformation toward a more sustainable and resilient society. Here we shine a light on the opportunity for these investments to support a green recovery by inventorying and classifying the latest information on governments' fiscal stimulus plans (1) and comparing the size of these measures to estimates of low-carbon energy investment needs compatible with the 2015 UN Paris Agreement. We show that low-carbon investments to put the world on an ambitious track toward net zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century are dwarfed by currently announced COVID-19 stimulus funds. But marked differences across countries and regions at differing stages of development emphasize the role that international support and global partnership must play to create conditions that enable a global climate-positive recovery.

Abstract. Current global mitigation ambition up to 2030 under the Paris Agreement, reflected in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs), is insufficient to achieve the agreement's 1.5  ∘ C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, the question as to how much collective improvement is achieved is a pivotal one for the credibility of the international climate regime. The recent Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5  ∘ C by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has assessed a wide range of scenarios that achieve the 1.5  ∘ C limit. Those pathways are characterised by a substantial increase in near-term action and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels about 50 % lower than what is implied by current NDCs. Here we assess the outcomes of different scenarios of NDC updating that fall short of achieving this 1.5  ∘ C benchmark. We find that incremental improvements in reduction targets, even if achieved globally, are insufficient to align collective ambition with the goals of the Paris Agreement. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those median scenarios for extreme temperature, long-term sea-level rise and economic damages for the most vulnerable countries. Under the assumption of maintaining ambition as reflected in current NDCs up to 2100 and beyond, we project a reduction in the gross domestic product (GDP) in tropical countries of around 60 % compared to a no-climate-change scenario and median long-term sea-level rise of close to 2 m in 2300. About half of these impacts can be avoided by limiting warming to 1.5  ∘ C or below. Scenarios of more incremental NDC improvements do not lead to comparable reductions in climate impacts. An increase in aggregated NDC ambition of big emitters by 33 % in 2030 does not reduce presented climate impacts by more than about half compared to limiting warming to 1.5  ∘ C. Our results underscore that a transformational increase in 2030 ambition is required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

<div> <div> <div> <p>The <em>global yield gap</em> is a concept to assess the difference between the actual yield and the maximum potential yield that could be achieved by applying optimal agricultural techniques such as irrigation. Climate change and socio-economic development, including population growth, call for addressing the yield gap to increase global production and to adapt to climate change as irrigation in many circumstances is a very effective adaptation measure. On the regional level, the irrigation yield gap can thus be interpreted as an indicator linked to adaptive capacity of the agricultural sector to climate change impacts. At the same time, effective deployment of irrigation is linked, among other things, to the socio-economic development including economic capabilities, but also institutional and water governance frameworks.</p> <p>Based on a detailed assessment of the irrigation yield gap, taking into account water availability constraints such as environmental flow requirements, we here establish as sustainable irrigation adaptation index for the agricultural sector. In a next step we link this sustainable irrigation index to socio-economic indicators provided by the framework of Socio- Economic Pathways (SSPs) on the national level. Doing so allows us to project the closure of the yield gap alongside the quantitative SSP narratives of socio-economic developments. We find that even under very optimistic scenarios of socio-economic development, it will take decades to close the irrigation yield gap in many developing countries, while without substantial development improvements our results suggest limited improvement in many tropical countries. Our projections present a first attempt to consistently link future irrigation expansion to socio-economic scenarios used in climate change research. We report a substantial scenario dependence of this expansion that underscores the need to incorporate socio-economic projections into projections of future agricultural impacts.</p> </div> </div> </div>

<p>Heat extremes are among the most pertinent extreme weather hazards. At the same time, adaptation to the impacts of extreme heat can be very effective. The ability of societies to effectively adapt to climate change hazards such as extreme heat, however, critically depends on their level of socio-economic development. Examining the risks posed by future heat extremes to human societies requires to link socio-economic development trajectories with emerging heat extremes. Such an integrated assessment can also provide insights into whether or not it is indeed plausible for societies to &#8220;outgrow&#8221; climate change by increasing adaptive capacity faster than climate impacts emerge - &#160;a narrative that underlies many policy decisions that prioritize economic development over climate action still today.</p><p>&#160;</p><p>Here we provide such an integrated assessment by combining a novel approach to project the continuous emergence of heat extremes over the 21^st century under different concentration pathways and the pace of socio-economic development under the shared socio-economic pathways accounting for continuous autonomous adaptation. We find that even under the most optimistic scenarios of future development, countries may not be able to outpace unmitigated climate change. Only Paris-Agreement compatible concentration pathways allow for human development to keep up with or even outpace the emerging climate change signal in vulnerable countries in the near future. A similar picture emerges when comparing heat day emergence with future evolution of governance as a proxy for adaptive capacity. Our findings underscore the critical importance of achieving the Paris Agreement goals to enable climate-resilient, sustainable development.</p>

Geiges Andreas1, Paola Yanguas Parra1, Marina Andrijevic1,2, William Hare1, Alexander Nauels1, Peter Pfleiderer1,2,3, Michiel Schaeffer1,4, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner1,2,3 1Climate Analytics, 10961 Berlin, Germany 2IRITHESys, Humboldt University, 10117 Berlin, Germany 3Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany 4Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University and Research Centre, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands

Abstract. Current global mitigation ambition as under the Paris Agreement as reflected in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the Agreement's 1.5 °C long term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, the question as to how much collective improvement is achieved is a pivotal one for the credibility of the international climate regime. The recent Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change on Global Warming of 1.5 °C has assessed a wide range of scenarios that achieve the 1.5 °C limit. Those pathways are characterized by a substantial increase in near-term action and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels about 50 % lower than what is implied by current NDCs. Here we assess the outcomes of different scenarios of NDC updating that fall short of achieving this 1.5 °C benchmark. We find that incremental improvements in reduction targets even if achieved globally, are insufficient to align collective ambition with the goals of the Paris Agreement. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios including for extreme temperature, long-term sea level rise and economic damages for the most vulnerable countries. Under the assumption of maintaining ambition as reflected in current NDCs up to 2100 and beyond, we project a reduction in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in tropical countries of about 50–60 % compared to a no-climate change scenario and long-term sea-level rise of close to 2 m in 2300. About half of these impacts can be avoided by limiting warming to 1.5 °C, or below. Scenarios of more incremental NDC improvements do not lead to comparable reductions in climate impacts. An increase in 2030 of the aggregated NDC ambition of big emitters by 33 % does not deliver more than about half the potential reduction in climate impacts compared to limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Our results underscore that a transformational increase in 2030 ambition is required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

espanolEl presente trabajo propone investigar si los profesores de ELE en Serbia siguen los preceptos de las nuevas tendencias en la didactica de lenguas extranjeras y si aplican en clase los conocimientos adquiridos en seminarios de formacion, incluidas las tecnicas del aprendizaje interactivo. Para ello se ha elaborado un cuestionario de un total de 14 preguntas, al que han contestado 11 profesores de ELE, y se ha procedido a un analisis cualitativo de las respuestas. El analisis muestra que los profesores de ELE serbios recurren al aprendizaje cooperativo en sus clases, aunque no siempre sean conscientes de ello. Asimismo, muestran un evidente afan de motivar a los alumnos y capacitarlos para ser autonomos a largo plazo. Se concluye que los seminarios de formacion de profesores dan resultados positivos y que entre los temas de futuros seminarios deberia figurar tambien la evaluacion de los metodos del aprendizaje cooperativo. EnglishThis paper is an intention to survey if teachers of Spanish as a foreign language in Serbia follow the precepts of the new trends in FLT and if they apply in class the knowledge acquired in training seminars, including the techniques of interactive learning. For this purpose a questionnaire containing 14 questions has been elaborated. Eleven teachers of Spanish as a foreign language participated in the research, and then we carried out a qualitative analysis of their answers. The analysis shows that Serbian teachers do use the cooperative learning strategies in their classes, although they are not always aware of it. The results also reveal an evident eagerness to motivate students and enable them to be autonomous as a long-term goal. Additionally, the investigation shows that the teacher training seminars give positive results; therefore, the evaluation of cooperative learning methods