Tobacco consumption continues to be behavior engaged in by a large percentage of Bosnia & Herzegovina (BiH) citizens. According to the official statistics, nearly half of the state’s adults, that is about 1,200,600 people, consume tobacco products on a daily bases. The state excise policy is one of the main available tools for reducing smoking prevalence because cigarette prices are under the direct impact of this policy. The specific excise on cigarettes introduced in BiH in 2009 and has increased every year so it was the main driver of cigarette price growth. In order to provide research-based evidence for more effective tobacco taxation policies in BIH, in this paper we estimate the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes using the macro-level data for the period 2008 to 2017, on a semi-annual basis. The results have shown that the increase in prices of cigarettes has a statistically significant impact on cigarette consumption, at a significance level of 1%. The estimated price elasticity coefficient is in the range from -0.71 to -0.83, depends on the selected control variables used in the model. It means that the increase in real cigarette prices for 10% led to a decrease in cigarette consumption in the range from 7.1% to 8.3%.
Abstract The economic authorities of each country seek to maintain the expansion phase through the implementation of various economic policy measures, namely, to prevent or mitigate the recessionary phase in economic development. In that context, it is of considerable importance to understand how monetary policy decisions affect the movement of macroeconomic variables. The paper aims to examine and evaluate the contribution of monetary policy to mitigating the effects of the global economic and financial crisis, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, by analysing the impact of the real exchange rate, reference interest rate and money supply on the level of economic activity in Poland. Econometric analysis encompasses the period from 2006 to 2017. The research results suggest that there is a significant relationship between real economic activity and the real exchange rate both in the short and long term, but not between the reference interest rate and the money supply.
Tobacco consumption continues to be behavior engaged in by a large percentage of Bosnia&Herzegovina (BiH) citizens. According to the official statistics, nearly half of the state’s adults, that is about 1,200,600 people, consume tobacco product on a daily bases. The state excise policy is one of the main available tool for reducing smoking prevalence because the cigarette prices are under direct impact of this policy. The specific excise on cigarettes introduced in BiH in 2009 and have increased every year so it was the main driver of cigarettes price growth. In order to provide research-based evidence for more effective tobacco taxation policies in BIH, in this paper we estimate price elasticity of demand for cigarettes using the macro level data for the period 2008 to 2017, on a semi-annual basis. The results have shown that increase in prices of cigarettes have statistically significant impact on cigarettes consumption, at significance level of 1%. The estimated price elasticity coefficient is in the range from -0.71 to -0.83, depends on the selected control variables used in the model. It means that increase in real cigarettes prices for 10% led to the decrease in cigarettes consumption in the range from 7.1% to 8.3%.
The global economic crisis has not spared the countries of the Western Balkans. The ensuing recession, characterized by a decline in economic activity, a decline in consumption and an increase in unemployment, went hand in hand with drops in public revenues. This in turn resulted in budget imbalances that manifested in structural budget deficits and higher public debt. Fiscal consolidation was deemed necessary across the board. In this process, certain fiscal policy elements varied among countries. The structure of public revenues and public expenditures changed. The question is whether the fiscal consolidation was successful and to what extent. Dynamic panel analysis using PMG estimator in six Western Balkan Countries for the period 2004-2016 has shown that fiscal consolidation has positive impact on economic growth in this region. So, Western Balkan Countries have to conduct responsible public finances in order to encourage economic growth.
Economic theory suggests that free capital flows increase the efficiency of the resource allocation and stimulate economic growth. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a remedy for all economic problems in countries that do not have a sufficient level of accumulation to start economic growth. According to economic criteria of Copenhagen, countries that are in the process of European integration should have a functioning market economy able to cope with competition and market forces within the European Union. The greatest expectations regarding the development of a competitive economy in the Southeast European (SEE) countries are precisely related to attraction and exploitation of the positive effects of FDI. This paper explores the impact of FDI on economic growth of the Central European (CE) countries and the SEE countries. The experience of the CE countries can be beneficial for the SEE countries following them in the process of European integration. The results show that FDI flows to the SEE region are significantly lower than to the CE region. Panel analysis has shown a statistically significant impact of FDI on economic growth inboth regions. However, in absolute terms the impact of FDI on economic growth inthe SEE region is almost negligible.
Summаry: Economic theory suggests that free capital flows increase the efficiency of the resource allocation, and stimulate economic growth. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a kind of cure for all economic problems in countries that do not have a sufficient level of accumulation for starting economic growth. In this paper we will investigate the impact of FDI on economic growth in Commonwealth of Independent States (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan and Ukraine) for the 2000-2015 period. Our assumption is that increase in FDI inflow will have positive impact on economic growth. The analyisis was carried out using the ARDL (Pooled Mean Group/AR Distributed Lag Models). This model is particularly convenient in a situation where all variables are stationary at different levels. The results shows strong and positive impact of FDI on economic growth.
Abstract One of the key goals of the economic policy makers of every country is to achieve internal and external balance. An unavoidable segment of the analysis concerning the achievement of internal and external balance is certainly the influence of the exchange rate regime applied in a country. European transition countries, despite their similar initial problems and final objectives, applied different exchange rate regimes adapted to the economic circumstances and needs of the country. The paper aims to examine and demonstrate the impact of the applied exchange rate regime on the internal balance of the transition countries. The research encompasses 10 representative transition countries, in the period from 2000-2014. The results of the research, from the aspect of internal balance, confirmed the justification of the application of the floating exchange rate regime in more developed, but not in less-developed, European transition countries. The application of floating exchange rate regimes in less-developed transition countries is associated with a considerably higher average inflation rate, which may be explained by the higher import dependence of lessdeveloped countries and by the consequent transfer of depreciation to price growth.
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