Global burden of enteric infectious diseases, diarrhoeal diseases, and corresponding aetiologies, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.
BACKGROUND Enteric infectious diseases claim more than 1 million lives annually and are among the top ten causes of death in children younger than 5 years. Remarkable global investment has been dedicated to enteric infectious disease prevention and control; however, the shifting global health landscape is testing the continuance of progress. To evaluate the current status and guide future interventions, we present the latest epidemiological estimates of enteric infectious diseases from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 and assess progress towards the Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) mortality target of fewer than 20 deaths per 100 000 children younger than 5 years by 2025. METHODS We quantified the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of enteric infectious diseases by age, sex, and year across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. In GBD 2023, the following were considered under the category of enteric infectious diseases: diarrhoeal diseases, enteric fever (typhoid and paratyphoid), invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella spp (iNTS) infections, and other intestinal infectious diseases. We also examined 15 aetiologies contributing to diarrhoeal diseases. Incidence and prevalence were estimated with DisMod-MR (version 2.1), a Bayesian meta-regression tool, drawing on data from systematic reviews, population-based surveys, claims data, and hospital sources. Cause-specific mortality was modelled with Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling based on data from sources including vital registration, mortality surveillance, verbal autopsy, and minimally invasive tissue sampling. Years of life lost and years lived with disability were computed and combined to derive DALYs. For aetiology-specific estimation, population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for 15 pathogens were derived with a counterfactual framework. Point estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated from 250 draws from the posterior distribution. FINDINGS In 2023, enteric infectious diseases resulted in an estimated 1·27 million (95% UI 0·963-1·68) deaths globally, declining from 3·69 million (3·04-4·56) in 1990. The global age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 74·1 (62·0-92·9) per 100 000 population to 16·4 (12·6-21·3) per 100 000 population during the same period. Diarrhoeal diseases accounted for most deaths in 2023 (1·11 million [0·811-1·54]), followed by enteric fever and iNTS. South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa remained the most affected regions in 2023, with 599 000 (441 000-882 000) and 501 000 (373 000-648 000) deaths due to enteric infectious diseases, respectively, predominantly from diarrhoeal disease. Rotavirus was the leading cause of all-age diarrhoeal disease deaths (PAF 16·3% [12·0-21·5]), followed by norovirus (10·2% [2·4-17·0]) and Shigella spp (9·3% [5·4-15·2]). Among children younger than 5 years, PAFs of deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases were 40·2% (32·5-48·5) for rotavirus, 24·0% (15·1-36·7) for Shigella spp, and 23·4% (13·7-34·3) for adenovirus. Across 204 countries and territories, 141 met the GAPPD mortality target in 2023. The driving aetiologies among countries that did not meet the target in 2023 varied slightly by GBD super-region, but the highest or second-highest number of deaths in children younger than 5 years were consistently attributed to rotavirus. Astrovirus and sapovirus, newly included in GBD 2023, were responsible for 24 600 (6290-49 000) and 18 800 (4650-44 400) deaths, respectively, in 2023, mainly in children younger than 5 years. INTERPRETATION Our findings show that mortality and ASMRs of enteric infectious diseases declined substantially between 1990 and 2023. This decline is consistent with the expansion of public health measures and broader socioeconomic development. However, the burden in 2023 remains considerably high, with the highest mortality concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. Considering that more than a quarter of all countries had yet to meet the GAPPD mortality target in 2023, sustained efforts are needed to address the persistent burden in affected countries and to adapt to the changing global health landscape. FUNDING Gates Foundation.