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Bin Zhou, J. Bentham, M. di Cesare, H. Bixby, G. Danaei, K. Hajifathalian, C. Taddei, R. Carrillo-Larco, S. Djalalinia, S. Khatibzadeh, Charles Lugero, N. Peykari, Wan-Zhu Zhang, James E. Bennett, V. Bilano, G. Stevens, M. Cowan, L. Riley, Zheng-Ming Chen, Ian R. Hambleton, Rod Jackson, A. Kengne, Y. Khang, A. Laxmaiah, Jing Liu, R. Malekzadeh, H. Neuhauser, M. Sorić, G. Starc, J. Sundström, M. Woodward, M. Ezzati, Leandra Abarca-Gómez, Ziad A. Abdeen, N. Abu-Rmeileh, B. Acosta-Cázares, Robert J. Adams, W. Aekplakorn, K. Afsana, C. Aguilar-Salinas, C. Agyemang, N. Ahmad, A. Ahmadvand, W. Ahrens, K. Ajlouni, N. Akhtaeva, R. Al-Raddadi, Mohamed M. Ali, O. Ali, A. Alkerwi, Eman Aly, D. Amarapurkar, P. Amouyel, A. Amuzu, Lars Bo Andersen, S. Anderssen, L. Ängquist, R. Anjana, D. Ansong, H. Aounallah-Skhiri, J. Araújo, I. Ariansen, T. Aris, N. Arlappa, D. Arveiler, K. Aryal, T. Aspelund, Felix K. Assah, M. C. Assunção, M. Avdičová, A. Azevedo, Fereidoun Azizi, B. Babu, Suhad Bahijri, N. Balakrishna, M. Bamoshmoosh, Maciej Banach, P. Bandosz, J. Banegas, C. Barbagallo, A. Barceló, A. Barkat, Aluísio J. D. Barros, Mauro V. G. Barros, I. Bata, A. Batieha, Assembekov Batyrbek, L. Baur, R. Beaglehole, H. Ben Romdhane, M. Benet, L. S. Benson, A. Bernabé-Ortiz, G. Bernotienė, H. Bettiol, A. Bhagyalaxmi, S. Bharadwaj, Santosh K. Bhargava, Y. Bi, M. Bikbov, B. Bista, Peter Bjerregaard, E. Bjertness, M. Bjertness, C. Björkelund, A. Blokstra, Simona Bo, M. Bobak, H. Boeing, J. Boggia, C. Boissonnet, V. Bongard, R. Borchini, P. Bovet, Lutgart Braeckman, I. Brajkovich, Francesco Branca, J. Breckenkamp, Hermann Brenner, L. Brewster, Graziella Bruno, H. B. Bueno-de-Mesquita, A. Bugge, Con Burns, Michael Bursztyn, A. D. de León, J. Cacciottolo, Hui Cai, C. Cameron, G. Can, A. Cândido, V. Capuano, V. C. Cardoso, Axel C. Carlsson, M. Carvalho, F. Casanueva, Juan-Pablo Casas, C. Caserta, S. Chamukuttan, A. Chan, Q. Chan, H. Chaturvedi, N. Chaturvedi, Chien-Jen Chen, Fang-Fang Chen, Hua-Shuai Chen, Shuo-Hua Chen, Ching-Yu Cheng, Imane Cherkaoui Dekkaki, A. Chetrit, A. Chiolero, S. Chiou, A. Chiriță-Emandi, M. Chirlaque, Belong Cho, Yumi Cho, D. Christofaro, Jerzy Chudek, R. Cífková, E. Cinteză, F. Claessens, E. Clays, H. Concin, Cyrus Cooper, R. Cooper, Tara C. Coppinger, S. Costanzo, D. Cottel, Chris Cowell, Cora L. Craig, A. Crujeiras, J. Cruz, Graziella D'Arrigo, Eleonora d'Orsi, J. Dallongeville, Albertino A. Damasceno, Rachel Dankner, T. Dantoft, L. Dauchet, K. Davletov, G. D. De Backer, D. de Bacquer, G. de Gaetano, S. de Henauw, P. D. de Oliveira, D. De Smedt, M. Deepa, Abbas Dehghan, Hélène Delisle, Valérie Deschamps, K. Dhana, A. Di Castelnuovo, J. S. Dias-da-Costa, Alejandro Díaz, Ty T. Dickerson, Ha T. P. Do, C. Donfrancesco, Silvana P. Donoso, A. Döring, M. Dorobanțu, K. Doua, Wojciech Drygas, V. Dulskienė, A. Džakula, V. Dzerve, E. Dziankowska-Zaborszczyk, R. Eggertsen, U. Ekelund, J. El Ati, Paul I. P. Elliott, R. Elosua, R. Erasmus, C. Erem, L. Eriksen, J. Eriksson, J. Escobedo-de la Peña, Alun Evans, D. Faeh, Caroline H. D. Fall, F. Farzadfar, F. Félix-Redondo, T. Ferguson, Romulo A. Fernandes, D. Fernández-Bergés, Daniel Ferrante, M. Ferrari, C. Ferreccio, J. Ferrières, J. Finn, K. Fischer, B. Föger, L. Foo, Ann-Sofie Forslund, M. Forsner, H. Fouad, Damian K. Francis, Maria Do Carmo Franco, O. Franco, G. Frontera, F. Fuchs, S. Fuchs, Y. Fujita, T. Furusawa, Zbigniew A. Gaciong, F. Galvano, M. García-de-la-Hera, D. Gareta, S. Garnett, Jean-Michel Gaspoz, M. Gasull, L. Gates, J. Geleijnse, Anoosheh Ghasemian, Anup Ghimire, Simona Giampaoli, F. Gianfagna, Tiffany K. Gill, J. Giovannelli, R. Goldsmith, H. Gonçalves, M. González-Gross, J. González-Rivas, M. Gorbea, F. Gottrand, S. Graff-Iversen, D. Grafnetter, A. Grajda, M. Grammatikopoulou, R. D. Gregor, Tomasz Grodzicki, A. Grøntved, Giuseppe Grosso, Gabriella Gruden, V. Grujić, Dong-Feng Gu, O. Guan, E. Gudmundsson, V. Gudnason, R. Guerrero, I. Guessous, A. Guimarães, Martin C. Gulliford, Jóhanna Gunnlaugsdóttir, Marc J. Gunter, Prakash C. Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, O. Gureje, B. Gurzkowska, L. Gutierrez, F. Gutzwiller, F. Hadaegh, J. Halkjær, Rebecca Hardy, Rachakulla Hari Kumar, Jun Hata, Alison J. Hayes, Jiang He, Yu-Na He, M. Elisabeth, Ana Henriques, L. H. Cadena, S. Herrala, R. Heshmat, I. Hihtaniemi, Sai-Yin Ho, S. C. Ho, M. Hobbs, Albert Hofman, Gönül Dinç, A. Horimoto, C. Hormiga, Bernardo L. Horta, L. Houti, C. Howitt, T. Htay, A. Htet, M. Htike, Yong-Hua Hu, J. Huerta, M. Huisman, Abdullatif S. Husseini, I. Huybrechts, N. Hwalla, L. Iacoviello, Anna G. Iannone, Mohsen M. Ibrahim, N. Wong, Nayu Ikeda, M. Ikram, V. Irazola, Muhammad Islam, Aziz al-Safi Ismail, V. Ivković, Masanori Iwasaki, Jeremy M. Jacobs, Hashem Y. Jaddou, T. Jafar, K. Jamrozik, I. Janszky, G. Jasienska, A. Jelaković, B. Jelaković, Garry Jennings, Seung-lyeal Jeong, Chao Jiang, Michel Joffres, Mattias Johansson, J. Jokelainen, J. Jonas, T. Jørgensen, P. Joshi, J. Jozwiak, A. Juolevi, G. Jurak, V. Jureša, R. Kaaks, A. Kafatos, E. Kajantie, O. Kalter-Leibovici, N. Kamaruddin, K. Karki, A. Kasaeian, Joanne Katz, J. Kauhanen, Prabhdeep Kaur, M. Kavousi, G. Kazakbaeva, Ulrich Keil, L. K. Boker, S. Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Roya Kelishadi, Han C. G. Kemper, A. Kengne, A. Kerimkulova, M. Kersting, T. Key, Yousef S. Khader, D. Khalili, Mohammad Khateeb, K. Khaw, U. Kiechl-Kohlendorfer, S. Kiechl, J. Killewo, Jeongseon Kim, Yeon-Yong Kim, J. Klumbienė, M. Knoflach, E. Kolle, P. Kolsteren, P. Korrovits, Seppo Koskinen, K. Kouda, S. Kowlessur, S. Kozieł, Susi Kriemler, P. Kristensen, S. Krokstad, D. Kromhout, H. S. Kruger, R. Kubínová, R. Kučienė, D. Kuh, U. Kujala, Z. Kułaga, R. Kumar, P. Kurjata, Y. S. Kusuma, K. Kuulasmaa, Catherine Kyobutungi, T. Laatikainen, Carl Lachat, Tai-Hing Lam, O. Landrove, V. Lánská, G. Lappas, Bagher Larijani, L. E. Laugsand, Khanh Le Nguyen Bao, Tuyen D. Le, Catherine Leclercq, Jeannette Lee, Jeonghee Lee, T. Lehtimäki, L. M. León-Muñoz, N. Levitt, Yan-Ping Li, Christa L. Lilly, W. Lim, M. Lima-Costa, Hsien-Ho Lin, Xu Lin, Lars Lind, A. Linneberg, Lauren Lissner, M. Litwin, R. Lorbeer, P. Lotufo, J. Lozano, D. Lukšienė, Annamari Lundqvist, N. Lunet, P. Lytsy, Guan-Sheng Ma, Jun Ma, G. Machado-Coelho, S. Machi, Stefania Maggi, D. Magliano, Emmanuella Magriplis, M. Majer, M. Makdisse, Rahul Malhotra, K. MallikharjunaRao, S. Malyutina, Y. Manios, Jim Mann, Enzo Manzato, P. Margozzini, P. Marques-Vidal, L. P. Marques, J. Marrugat, R. Martorell, E. Mathiesen, A. Matijasevich, T. Matsha, J. Mbanya, Anselmo J. Mc Donald Posso, Shelly R. McFarlane, S. McGarvey, S. McLachlan, R. McLean, Scott B. McLean, B. McNulty, Sounnia Médiène-Benchekor, J. Medzioniene, A. Meirhaeghe, Christa Meisinger, A. Menezes, G. Menon, I. Meshram, A. Metspalu, Haakon E. Meyer, Jie Mi, Kairit Mikkel, Jody C. Miller, Cláudia S. Minderico, Juan Francisco, J. J. Miranda, E. Mirrakhimov, M. Mišigoj-Duraković, P. Modesti, Mostafa K. Mohamed, K. Mohammad, N. Mohammadifard, V. Mohan, S. Mohanna, M. F. Yusoff, L. Møllehave, N. Møller, Dénes Molnár
84 19. 3. 2018.

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1,018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

Background Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods We pooled 1,018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean SBP, mean DBP and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results In 2005-2016, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in south Asia and in central Asia, Middle East and north Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.


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